An article in today's WSJ (subscription required) suggests that Bush's projections for stock market returns on the "private accounts" are overoptimistic:
A number of prominent economists have two problems with Mr. Bush's pitch. First, they say it's too optimistic about the long-term prospects for stocks. Second, it ignores an irrefutable rule of finance: There is no free lunch. Or, put another way, greater returns bear greater risks.
"You can't just sort of invent free return," says William Dudley, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York. "If it was that easy, you wouldn't have a Social Security problem in the first place."
Bush always stretches the truth to support his right wing agenda.